Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
